African Armies: Evolution and Capabilities by Bruce E Arlinghaus

Author:Bruce E Arlinghaus [Arlinghaus, Bruce E]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9780429705779
Goodreads: 44598151
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2019-03-04T00:00:00+00:00

Growth Trends and Effects

The characteristics of Africa's changing military environment easiest to quantify are the growing size of the armies and the increase in modern weaponry. Table 5.1 shows the personnel strength of African armed forces at five-year intervals beginning in 1966. In most countries the size of the armed forces has continued to grow since the early years of independence (represented by the 1966 figures). In almost all the countries listed the size of the armed forces in 1981 is substantially larger than in the early years. In some countries the most recent figures are many times greater, and quite a few states show a sizable increase from 1976 to 1981. Historically, larger armies tended to develop in larger countries, where ethnic and regional cleavages threatened disintegration (e.g., Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Zaire). Indigenous armies have also grown rapidly in southern Africa as a result of the decolonization process (e.g., Angola, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Zambia, and South Africa—the latter actually in response to decolonization elsewhere in the region, which increased Pretoria's perception of the external threat). Dramatic increases in strength have also occurred as a result of local conflicts (e.g., Tanzania, Somalia, Ethiopia). But even in smaller countries that have been relatively free from conflict, armies have tended to increase. Thus, military growth seems to be part of a long-term trend rather than a temporary condition.

In general, African armies are better at mobilizing than at demobilizing. Three wars during the 1970s—the Angolan Civil War, the Ogaden War, and the Tanzania-Uganda War—illustrate a mobilization capability that was previously unknown. They show how a national army or guerrilla army can be expanded rapidly to meet a fast-developing conflict situation. Aside from maintaining army veterans in reserve, many countries have organized national youth movements or national service organizations whose members are given some form of paramilitary training. Originally intended as internal security backup forces, in time of national emergency these movements and organizations form a pool of manpower for the armed forces. Although little is known about the extent of reserve military structures in most countries, recent examples suggest that many African countries can mobilize significant manpower for the military when hostilities threaten.

Most sources tend to agree that African armies will continue to grow, but they often disagree on the extent of the increases. Some say simply that the trend is toward an increased number of men under arms. Others believe military growth will continue at a measured pace except in circumstances in which special stimuli accelerate the process. And at least one writer has stated that quantitative military expansion will be an accomplished fact by the year 2000.5 I believe

TABLE 5.1 Personnel Strengths of African Armed Forces (Army, Navy, Air Force), Rounded to the Nearest Thousand

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